This also scales up. There is no discernible difference between the Curley effect at the Portland level and at the state level - they are governed in the same way, by the same extreme leftists, with the same incentives and results - power (supermajority) largely unimpeded, public employee unions (SEIU, OEA) and non profits rewarded, the circle continues. Look no further than the “student success act” that put in place a gross receipts tax and has produced zero student success - but OEA’s members all got fat raises and their PAC grew.
Dig into the non profits in Idaho. 500+ registered up here in and around Sandpoint (population 10k, county population 50k). There's also the innovia foundation, providing grants to non profits.
A good chunk would be churches. I think every event ( outside of the chamber of commerce events), eg chafe150, is its own non profit. Many spin up as passion projects and either expand or shrink, depending on the sustainability once the “founder” departs. Lots of retirees looking for legacy investment. Federal grant chasing opportunities. Then weave in the overall antagonistic attitude by locals to outside corporate development (“we want a hotel but we want our design and we don't want to pay for it, and don't wreck the beach or parking either”). So when locals want something (like the ice rink), they pretty much have to chase non-profit monies to get it. The adjacent town of Ponderay has the big box stores, sends millions of dollars to Boise but only sees about $150k returned; the mayor uses local option taxes to allocate funds to pay for the ice rink, the desired aquatics center, etc. All run by non-profits. It's kinda fascinating and frustrating at the same time.
Non-profits are so entrenched that the non-partisan chamber of commerce runs a leadership program to train people to be decent board members. (I still haven't really figured out the purpose of the chamber beyond connecting businesses with non-profits for board work and donations.)
I voted with my feet, and it's fascinating to watch from outside. I'm betting that water bill surcharges and vacancy taxes will be passed and the exodus will increase. I truly hate to see it, Portland used to be a wonderful place. But it looks like bankruptcy is inevitable and the only way to force change.
In my Mt Tabor neighborhood, wealthy people are still moving here. Over the weekend there was an open house for a home down the street from us, and several expensive cars showed up that belonged to people going to look at that house. I expect a sale to close soon at asking price or above.
Wealthy people bring luxury belief systems, such as fighting crime by defunding the police. Lower income people on the outer east side pay the price with high crime and food deserts.
Wealthy people bring a resort economy with all the jobs in the restaurant and retail industries.
One of the rental houses near us all the residents work in restaurants. They get together regularly to talk about their love of Marxists ideology. The pay in resort jobs is low, and the hours are often just part time. They will never be able to afford their own apartment or own a home as long as they work in the resort economy.
I dunno. Have you driven around Irvington or Alameda lately? They seem to be settled in for the long run judging by the vast amounts they've been spending on taking the hardscaping and landscaping around their picture-perfect $1.6 million-and-up homes to the next level. It is hard to see them flipping those and moving to a much more costly market elsewhere on the West Coast.
And don't forget the coast and the Mt Hood area. People from the outside move in, bid up the cost of housing, and all the jobs are at the restaurants and retail shops the wealthy go to. Also Portland is a bedroom community in that the good paying jobs are in the suburbs.
Very interesting article. As a Gen X whose adult child is planning on leaving for California, we’re equally halfway out the door as we get closer to retirement. The only factors keeping us here are the housing market and the golden handcuffs of being a healthcare worker where we are some of the best paid in the country (however healthcare is imploding in Oregon so it may not be a factor for long) Regarding the shifting political demographics, I’m curious if those numbers reflect all those who became unaffiliated because of both parties becoming extreme in their own ways. I know I became unaffiliated because I became sick and tired of the stupidity on both sides
I love Portland and have found more authentic community here in 5.5 years than I did in 40 living in the SF Bay Area where I was born and raised. I left during COVID when my (self employed) work went remote. I still own property in SF and have concluded I need to return to California for 6.5 months of the year when my kids finish school. Our inner pdx home will become a holiday home for summer and winter holidays. Despite having moved from a high tax state to an even higher tax county, that’s not my problem. I don’t love paying taxes, but that’s not why I’m leaving to establish residency back in California. I’m leaving because of the extremely low threshold Oregon estate tax. And when I move my domicile, Oregon and Multnomah county will also lose my income tax revenue. The higher one’s income and net worth, the easier it is to own multiple homes and change domicile. The Oregon estate tax seems really stupid IMO because I will still get to enjoy the best of PDX and save my children *a lot* of money by living in California for 6.5 months of the year.
An Oregon (not Portland) story: Dutch Brothers Coffee, formerly headquartered in Grants Pass, relocated to Tempe, Arizona last year. They roast the beans in Texas. See:
We made the WSJ yesterday as having the highest state and local taxes in the US, having downward economic effects as a result. NYC has higher taxes, but only if you make over $25 mil a year.
Yes, the disintegration is not a flaw or the product of ignorance. It IS the plan and the product. But this is the best explanation of it I have ever seen. Too bad that the people who get elected to stop this don't understand it. If I hear one more candidate promise to work across the aisle... well I better leave it at that.
I live across the county border in Clackamas and it's frustrating to see so many people who fled PDX in 2020/21 and settled here are now voting for the same sort of candidates who promote those very destructive policies.
“Proponents of ranked-choice voting claim it puts more moderate candidates in office. The current makeup of Portland’s city council rebuts that claim.” — RCV elections that require 50%+1 to win do tend to elect moderates (see Alaska). In Portland, it’s the combination of RCV with multi-member districts, which allow people to win with 25%+1 (or less; see Dunphy) that drives wins for ideological outliers.
This is the single best description of the city's dynamics you or I will ever read.
This also scales up. There is no discernible difference between the Curley effect at the Portland level and at the state level - they are governed in the same way, by the same extreme leftists, with the same incentives and results - power (supermajority) largely unimpeded, public employee unions (SEIU, OEA) and non profits rewarded, the circle continues. Look no further than the “student success act” that put in place a gross receipts tax and has produced zero student success - but OEA’s members all got fat raises and their PAC grew.
And it explains the Greater Idaho movement (greateridaho.org). We aren't being ignored, we're being intentionally pushed away.
Dig into the non profits in Idaho. 500+ registered up here in and around Sandpoint (population 10k, county population 50k). There's also the innovia foundation, providing grants to non profits.
Even there. Any idea why?
A good chunk would be churches. I think every event ( outside of the chamber of commerce events), eg chafe150, is its own non profit. Many spin up as passion projects and either expand or shrink, depending on the sustainability once the “founder” departs. Lots of retirees looking for legacy investment. Federal grant chasing opportunities. Then weave in the overall antagonistic attitude by locals to outside corporate development (“we want a hotel but we want our design and we don't want to pay for it, and don't wreck the beach or parking either”). So when locals want something (like the ice rink), they pretty much have to chase non-profit monies to get it. The adjacent town of Ponderay has the big box stores, sends millions of dollars to Boise but only sees about $150k returned; the mayor uses local option taxes to allocate funds to pay for the ice rink, the desired aquatics center, etc. All run by non-profits. It's kinda fascinating and frustrating at the same time.
That's fascinating. Sounds like they figured out how to end-run the regulatory apparatus. I bet they also figured out how to pay themselves well.
Non-profits are so entrenched that the non-partisan chamber of commerce runs a leadership program to train people to be decent board members. (I still haven't really figured out the purpose of the chamber beyond connecting businesses with non-profits for board work and donations.)
I voted with my feet, and it's fascinating to watch from outside. I'm betting that water bill surcharges and vacancy taxes will be passed and the exodus will increase. I truly hate to see it, Portland used to be a wonderful place. But it looks like bankruptcy is inevitable and the only way to force change.
In my Mt Tabor neighborhood, wealthy people are still moving here. Over the weekend there was an open house for a home down the street from us, and several expensive cars showed up that belonged to people going to look at that house. I expect a sale to close soon at asking price or above.
Wealthy people bring luxury belief systems, such as fighting crime by defunding the police. Lower income people on the outer east side pay the price with high crime and food deserts.
Wealthy people bring a resort economy with all the jobs in the restaurant and retail industries.
One of the rental houses near us all the residents work in restaurants. They get together regularly to talk about their love of Marxists ideology. The pay in resort jobs is low, and the hours are often just part time. They will never be able to afford their own apartment or own a home as long as they work in the resort economy.
Unfortunately, those same people will eventually leave, take their dumb ideas with them, and start over some other place.
Can we expedite their departure? 🤓
I dunno. Have you driven around Irvington or Alameda lately? They seem to be settled in for the long run judging by the vast amounts they've been spending on taking the hardscaping and landscaping around their picture-perfect $1.6 million-and-up homes to the next level. It is hard to see them flipping those and moving to a much more costly market elsewhere on the West Coast.
Last summer I went on a tour of gardens in Irvington. Lovely expensive gardens mostly tended by wealthy women. They are not going anywhere.
Resort economy in the city. Feudalism revived.
Like the resort economy they gave to the Gorge?
And don't forget the coast and the Mt Hood area. People from the outside move in, bid up the cost of housing, and all the jobs are at the restaurants and retail shops the wealthy go to. Also Portland is a bedroom community in that the good paying jobs are in the suburbs.
Just like the MAGA extremists they will vote against their interests in the name of ideology.
Very interesting article. As a Gen X whose adult child is planning on leaving for California, we’re equally halfway out the door as we get closer to retirement. The only factors keeping us here are the housing market and the golden handcuffs of being a healthcare worker where we are some of the best paid in the country (however healthcare is imploding in Oregon so it may not be a factor for long) Regarding the shifting political demographics, I’m curious if those numbers reflect all those who became unaffiliated because of both parties becoming extreme in their own ways. I know I became unaffiliated because I became sick and tired of the stupidity on both sides
I’m voting with my feet right now. Reading this excellent and informative article while on a flight at 35,000 feet. Goodbye, Portland.
This is the most brilliant and penetrating analysis of Portland’s problems and have ever read. It’s also too depressing for words.
I love Portland and have found more authentic community here in 5.5 years than I did in 40 living in the SF Bay Area where I was born and raised. I left during COVID when my (self employed) work went remote. I still own property in SF and have concluded I need to return to California for 6.5 months of the year when my kids finish school. Our inner pdx home will become a holiday home for summer and winter holidays. Despite having moved from a high tax state to an even higher tax county, that’s not my problem. I don’t love paying taxes, but that’s not why I’m leaving to establish residency back in California. I’m leaving because of the extremely low threshold Oregon estate tax. And when I move my domicile, Oregon and Multnomah county will also lose my income tax revenue. The higher one’s income and net worth, the easier it is to own multiple homes and change domicile. The Oregon estate tax seems really stupid IMO because I will still get to enjoy the best of PDX and save my children *a lot* of money by living in California for 6.5 months of the year.
Oregon will still tax your estate on your Oregon property. See an estate planning attorney. that can be fixed.
An Oregon (not Portland) story: Dutch Brothers Coffee, formerly headquartered in Grants Pass, relocated to Tempe, Arizona last year. They roast the beans in Texas. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Bros._Coffee
This is exactly what mydummy is doing in New York.
Actually it’s much worse than Mandami….at least he’s practicing “sewer socialism”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewer_socialism
This kind of thing has been going on for a while hasn’t it? We will get past it somehow just as we did before but what a waste of time and money.
I’m not so sure we’ll get past it. Not in my lifetime.
We made the WSJ yesterday as having the highest state and local taxes in the US, having downward economic effects as a result. NYC has higher taxes, but only if you make over $25 mil a year.
Yes, the disintegration is not a flaw or the product of ignorance. It IS the plan and the product. But this is the best explanation of it I have ever seen. Too bad that the people who get elected to stop this don't understand it. If I hear one more candidate promise to work across the aisle... well I better leave it at that.
It’s a feature, not a bug
I live across the county border in Clackamas and it's frustrating to see so many people who fled PDX in 2020/21 and settled here are now voting for the same sort of candidates who promote those very destructive policies.
They did the same to Clark County in WA
yeah
Self inflicted demise, expedited, progressive Democrat style- Portland is a text book example.
The normies went east of the Cascades, where they are trying to join Idaho.
“Proponents of ranked-choice voting claim it puts more moderate candidates in office. The current makeup of Portland’s city council rebuts that claim.” — RCV elections that require 50%+1 to win do tend to elect moderates (see Alaska). In Portland, it’s the combination of RCV with multi-member districts, which allow people to win with 25%+1 (or less; see Dunphy) that drives wins for ideological outliers.